Shahed drones, particularly the Shahed-136 model also known as Geran-2 in Russian service, are loitering munitions originally supplied by Iran and now produced domestically by Russia. These drones are 11.5 feet in length, 8.2 feet in width, and have a take-off weight of approximately 440 pounds, designed for long-range attacks with warheads weighing an estimated 66–110 pounds. Their reported range of 602–1,553 miles and speed of over 115 mph make them ideal for striking ground targets from a distance. Russia has increased their usage since autumn 2022, with over 14,700 launches between September 2022 and December 2024, primarily targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian areas.

Tactical Impact

Tactically, Shahed drones have been employed to strike strategic infrastructure such as power lines, supply lines, and military targets. In saturation attacks involving hundreds of drones nightly, the aim is to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense resources. Recent statistics indicate attacks averaging 100 Shahed-type drones per night, with peaks of 300 drones in May 2025. Despite high interception rates of 91% since March 2024, the drones that penetrate defenses can cause significant damage, especially when combined with missile strikes.

The following table summarizes key tactical specifications and operational use:

Strategic Impact

Strategically, Russia's use of Shahed drones is part of a "punishment strategy" aimed at forcing Ukraine into negotiations by weakening civilian morale and resilience. The drones' ability to strike deep inside Ukrainian territory, targeting power grids and supply lines, is intended to undermine Ukraine's war effort. This fits into a broader attrition strategy where Russia seeks to complicate Ukrainian sovereignty over time.

Economic Impact

The economic advantage of Shahed drones lies in their low cost, estimated at $20,000 to $50,000 per drone, compared to the high cost of Ukrainian interceptors like NASAMS missiles, which cost over $1 million each. This cost difference allows Russia to sustain frequent drone attacks, with production expected to reach 6,000 units by summer 2025. However, reliance on foreign components may pose sustainability issues under sanctions.

Technological and Industrial Impact

The conflict has spurred a drone arms race, with both Russia and Ukraine enhancing their drone capabilities. Russia has modified the Shahed-136 with fiberglass fuselages and GLONASS-compatible electronics to improve effectiveness. Ukraine has developed its own drone models and countermeasures, highlighting a shift in modern warfare dynamics.

Psychological Impact and Countermeasures

The psychological impact on the Ukrainian population is significant, with continuous drone attacks causing fear and disruption. Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman, Major Ilya Yevlash, described the drones as "destroying everything," highlighting their debilitating effect on infrastructure and civilian morale. Ukraine has implemented various countermeasures, including an expanded early-warning network, mobile fire groups, electronic warfare, and anti-aircraft guns, achieving interception rates of 91% since March 2024. However, the need for scalable, low-cost solutions remains as Russia continues to increase drone production.

The following table details Ukraine's countermeasures and their effectiveness:

Conclusion

Shahed/Geran drones have revolutionized warfare in Ukraine by providing Russia with a cost-effective, high-impact weapon system. Their use has tactical, strategic, economic, technological, and psychological implications, challenging Ukraine's defenses and resilience. As drone technology continues to evolve, its impact on future conflicts will be significant, necessitating adaptive strategies and technologies.